by confoundedinterest17 The good news is that 1) Q3 GDP is forecast to be 35.23% (Atl Fed) or 14.07 (NY Fed) and 2) Q4 GDP is forecast to be 4.82%. Blogger keeps finger on pulse of housing market. Goldman Sachs has upgraded … about 1 month ago; Partner Center Find a Broker. What it means: Both GDPNow forecasts are driven by economic reports that increase or decrease expected U.S. growth for the quarter. The pair is also reacting to the unfolding crisis on Brexit as key differences between the EU and the UK remain. Read the full story. Australia will publish its Q3 Gross Domestic Product this Wednesday. }, A leading real-estate data junkie is now focused on the impact of the coronavirus. Wars are external shocks; so are earthquakes … and diseases. From Merrill Lynch: We revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to 27% qoq saar from 15% previously, but take down 4Q to 3.0% qoq saar from 5.0%. by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2020 12:22:00 PM, CRcounter = CRcounter+1; if (CRcounter <= CRtoshow) { document.writeln(""); The EUR/USD is wavering ahead of the final reading of US Q3 GDP data that will come out at 13:30 GMT. }, if (CRcounter <= CRtoshow) { November 9, 2020 | 12:33 am. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 25-Sep 5-Oct 15-Oct 25-Oct 4-Nov 14-Nov 24-Nov 4-Dec 14-Dec 24-Dec 3-Jan Date of forecast Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. BREAKING: The Atlanta Fed forecasts a record national GDP growth rate of 32% for Q3, meaning the third quarter will be the mother of all economic rebounds thanks to businesses going from a total lockdown to a new COVID-19 normal. “Externalshock” is a technical-sounding term that economists use to describe a random event that disturbs the economy. COVID-19 is an external shock that has the potential to upend the trajectory of the economy. [Sept 4 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 29.6 percent September 3, up from 28.5 percent on September 1 [Sept 3 estimate] document.writeln(""); 2Q GDP is tracking -31.6% qoq saar. document.writeln(""); Goldman Sachs economists lowered their third-quarter US GDP growth forecast to 25% from 33% on Saturday, citing weak consumer services spending and the strong uptick in national coronavirus cases. We view this scenario as the most probable. Q3 2020 GDP growth forecast. The revised growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 are 0.1% and 2% respectively,” the NCAER said in its mid-year economic review. The Q3 GDP reading is due on Friday. The revised growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 are 0.1 per cent and 2 per cent respectively,' the NCAER's mid-year economic review said. }, A leading real-estate data junkie is now focused on the impact of the coronavirus. With the midterms near, the big question isn't whether the number will be good — it's whether it will be good enough to match the expectations set by Trump. The economy is expected to have grown 2.6% in the three months to September, after falling by 7% in … by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2020 12:20:00 PM, CRcounter = CRcounter+1; Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2020: Q4 Base Case Forecast: Our base case forecast yields 4Q20 real GDP growth of 2.8 percent* (annualized rate), an annual contraction of 3.6 percent for 2020, and an annual expansion of 3.6 percent for 2021. It is also reacting to the new stimulus package passed by the US congress. document.writeln("